Fly Over Thoughts

Uncle Ron

2012-01-21T16:09:00.000-08:00

I guess it is just me, but Ron Paul reminds me a rich uncle you only see at Thanksgiving Dinner. His conversation would have little to do with the present topic and he would provide the same humerous interlude every year by walking up to all the children present and saying "Pull my finger".

Mitt Rolaids

2012-01-14T12:01:00.000-08:00

There has been much talk amid GOP primaries about voting for “the most conservative candidate who can defeat Barak Obama”. That Republicans must refuse the urge to elect a conservative and go for the win. In other words, stay with a strategy that served so well in 1992, 1996, and 2008, while only succeeding in 2000 and 2004 because the Democrats ran two of the worst candidates since George McGovern.
I think this is the primary source of Mitt Romney’s appeal. How often is it said “he can beat Obama”? Let’s please ignore the fact that it is generally leftists who are saying this with grim smirks. One can almost hear them thinking “I can’t believe they are buying this”.
To conservatives everywhere: Mitt is not It. This has nothing to do with him being a Mormon, Bain Capital, venture-capitalism, or Romney care. It all boils down to stomach acid.
Should the Republican candidate prevail, the primary function of the 45th President and 113th Congress will be to repeal the three big acts: Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, and Sarbanes-Oxley.

Mitt does not have the intestinal fortitude for this fight.

I believe what has made Mitt rich and famous and a threat to win the Presidency is his “go-along to get-along” attitude. This attitude is the reason Mitt has long been considered a flip-flopper. He simply adopts the latest trends and hangs on. For the repeal of these three laws that are working as a trifecta to strangle businesses across our county we need a leader who understands the danger these laws place on the countries financial well-being and work stringently with Congress to repel. Not amend, not “defund”, not work within the system to “improve that which works and remove that which doesn’t”; but to end, remove, and repeal these laws and rid ourselves of these onerous blights on capital.
Now, I know some out there might say that who sits in the White House is not nearly as important as a nuclear Iran, an unstable Iraq, and growing army of Islamic fanatics raised on hatred of the west and filled with religious fervor to strike a blow against the infidel. While they are absolutely right about the gravity of the threat from radical Muslims; they also need to realize only a country that is strong financially can wage an active war against terrorist insurgents on a world wide scale. Without financial backing, most intelligence: not gathered, the little that is: not analyzed, and finally there is no force to act upon what little we do learn.
First things first, we have to make long term decisions to get our financial house in order. Mitt Romney is not the man to make the tough decision to set policy of removing these laws and to lead the fight to set-in-place the fundamental building blocks that will restore our country financially.

30 Rocks in His Head?

2011-12-15T20:33:00.000-08:00

I’m sure most have heard of the case of Alec Baldwin versus American Airlines. Where Mr. Baldwin was removed from a flight for refusing to turn off his electronic game despite repeatedly being told it was against FAA regulations. Now, I’m not here to discuss the factual nature of the regulation and whether or not is does interfere with cockpit equipment or even the fact that a grown (?) man threw a hissy fit over a video game. Nor will I point out the possible hypocrisy of Mr. Baldwin visa-vie his well published scolding of his daughter for being rude. No, my thoughts go to the political position Mr. Baldwin has always espoused and the nature of regulations in general.

Mr. Baldwin is a proud liberal. Liberals in general appear to believe that if we just put enough rules in place we will all lead happy, safe, warm, comfortable lives. Rules, laws, and regulations are the hallmark of any liberal group. The occupy crowd wishes to have greater regulation over wall street. The recent democratic led congress believed we didn’t need to allow failing banks to fail, but to prop them up with a new bevy or rules and regulations. With any disaster, man-made or natural, the liberal solution is always a new set of rules.

So my question: why does Mr. Baldwin, who supports such rules and regulation to make life fair for all, not follow the rules immediately and without question? Doesn’t he realize these are Federal Regulations and were put in for our safety?

C to Shining C

2011-11-05T11:24:00.000-07:00

I find it interesting that the sexual harassment charges against Herman Cain occurred during that brief window of history between the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings and Bill Clinton's la-affair Lewinsky. A time where noticing a woman’s new hair cut or commenting on her new purse could get a man fired and a company embroiled in a lawsuit. That brief moment in history when women were allowed to retreat behind the powder puff with a case of the vapors when a subject appeared that offended their delicate sensibilities. I won’t mention this time also coincided with women demanding equal acceptance in the work place, some oxymoron’s are just too difficult to comprehend without listing to Pink Floyd’s “The Wall” for 24 straight hours while drinking tequila. I am just glad that famous liberal David Letterman didn’t fire a producer and give her job to a woman willing to have sex with him in this time frame; had that occurred we would have been denied all his “wonderful” attack humor on Sarah Palin.

Tax Loopholes

2011-08-24T17:30:00.000-07:00

Two thing President Obama appears to believe: 1) That a donation being tax deductible has no bearing on the amount being donated 2) The taxes not paid on donations because they are tax deductible is tantamount to stealing from the Federal Treasury. I agree completely. To that ends I propose we stop making political donations tax deductible. With President Obama planning on spending $1 Billion on the next election that would be in the neighborhood of $250,000,000 more to the government coffers.

Obese Childrem

2011-08-24T17:25:00.000-07:00

Harvard researchers are advocating the government must step in to help morbidly obese children due to health issues and hold parents criminally responsible for child abuse or neglect. Question: if a child is forced to eat vegetables and denied sugar at what point will this damage his self esteem and cause the parents to be held criminally responsible for child abuse or neglect? Question 2: What if the children completely refuse to eat grilled chicken, fresh vegetables, and fruit salad, would the parents be charged with child abuse for starving their children? Question 3: Would the Harvard researchers agree that people who knowingly engage in sexual activates that can lead to health issues also be held criminally responsible? After all, isn’t the issue criminal charges for behavior that can cause health issues?

Things are complicated

2011-02-07T08:45:00.000-08:00

I have a "friend" on facebook called Chip. Chip's actually a guy I played in band with in high school, but who I haven't seen in decades, so he doesn't really qualify as a friend anymore, except in the facebook sense. Anyway, Chip runs a manufacturing company founded by his father that makes machines that have to do with making pipes. They make machines that make fintubes, whatever those are. (I get a vision of the offspring of a pipe bred with a 50s Cadillac, but I'm sure that's not right.) They also make equipment for fusing polyethylene pipe. As near as I can tell, they don't make polyethylene pipe or machines for making polyethylene pipe (unless fintubes are also polyethylene pipes), just the machines for fusing them. They seem to employ 100 or more people based on the company group photo on their website.

So what's the point? Chip's company strikes me as an outstanding example of how damn complicated our world is. Here's this company, employing dozens of people focusing on a really narrow portion of our industrial process: making machines to fuse pipes. There are pipes everywhere, of course, and fusing them is really important, if you don't want them to leak, but pipes are just devises to move fluids about. They're kind of dull. The really complicated stuff happens before or after the fluid goes into the pipe. Pipes aren't really central to anything people do with fluids, they're just a good way to get fluids from one place to another. Yet one small part of the process involved in creating these rather pedestrian devices is important enough to support a small industry. (I assume that Chip's company has competitors in the fusion machine and fintube-making machine markets.)

Multiple that by all of the other steps in the process of making pipes and you come to the the realization that the humble pipe implies a incomprehensibly complicated industrial infrastructure. I don't even want to think about the machines doing complicated things to the fluids at the end of the pipes.

I don't really have anywhere to go with this, except to say that it boggles my mind, and that anyone who claims to understand our economy is either lying or deluded.

Margin of error

2010-10-12T08:57:00.001-07:00

I've been looking at political polls a lot recently. In my attempt to understand them, I've been thinking about the terms thrown about with explanation, one of which is "margin of error".

I don't think margin of error means what people think it means. You will often see polls like this: Bruce Scott (R) 51% v. Scott Bruce (D) 49%, margin of error 3%. To which people respond, "that's a dead heat since it's within the margin of error". Not exactly. Margin of error cuts both way; the real percentage is as likely to be 54-36 as it is 48-52. Given that, there are seven possibilities (54-36, 53-37, 52-48, 51-49, 50-50, 49-51, and 48-52). If one assumes that each of these possibilities is equally likely, then the "republican" wins 4 out of 7 times, the "democrat" 2 out of 7 times, and the lawyers 1 out of 7 times.

I realize that this is a gross oversimplification. To begin with, votes almost never break in even integer percentages, but the 2:1 win ratio for the "republican" v. "democrat" will apply for fractional results as well, the percentage of ties, however, will shrink. It is also probably that there is some sort of bell curve for these possibilities, so that 54-36 and 48-52 are equally likely, but both are less likely than 53-37 and 49-51. Even given that, the area under "republican" side of the curve will be greater that the area under the "democrat" side of the curve. I suspect that the 2:1 ratio might even still apply.

I also realize that I've never taken a course in statistics or probability, and that I may be completely wrong here. But until someone explains to me why this reasoning is wrong, I'm going to assume that "margin of error" is something that can almost be ignored.

New Suggested reading.

2010-10-05T09:57:00.000-07:00

I've added a new suggested reading to our list "The Long War Journal". Unlike the other 3 posters here, I feel that the Long War is some what more important than who has power in Washington DC. I'm not saying that having a liberal Congress and President is a good thing, or that having a conservative Congress and President would be a bad thing, but I am saying that what Al Qaeda and other jihad groups are doing is somewhat more pressing than what the capital gains tax rate is.

2012 and history.

2010-09-27T12:49:00.000-07:00

What does it take to beat a sitting president running for reelection? If history is any guide, it takes a strong challenge from within the president's party. Since 1900, with one exception, every sitting president who failed to gain reelection faced a significant challenge from within his party. It works the other way as well. In the same time span, every sitting president, with one exception, that has faced significant opposition within his party failed to win the general election.

In 1912 William Taft faced a strong challenge for the nomination from Teddy Roosevelt. When Taft won the nomination, Teddy formed his Bull Moose party. Woodrow Wilson crushed Taft in the general election. In 1952 Senator Estes Kefauver of Tennessee defeated Harry Truman in the New Hampshire primary. Shortly thereafter Truman withdrew from the race. In 1968 Lyndon Johnson barely beat Eugene McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary. Four days later, Robert Kennedy entered the race and two weeks later Johnson withdrew. In 1976, Gerald Ford faced Ronald Reagan in the primaries and barely won, finally winning the nomination in a floor fight at the convention. Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in the general election. In 1980 Carter faced a strong challenge from Ted Kennedy who won 40% of the delegates to the Democratic convention. Carter was crushed by Ronald Reagan in the general election. In 1992, George H. W. Bush faced a symbolic but significant challenge from Patrick Buchanan. Although Buchanan won no state primaries and only an handful of delegates, he did win a significant percentage of the primary vote. His run highlighted the dissatisfaction with Bush felt by the conservative wing of the Republican party. Bush also faced a third party challenger, Ross Perot, who may have acted as a spoiler for Bush.

The one example of a sitting president facing a significant intra-party challenge and prevailing in the general election was Harry Truman in 1948. Truman faced a serious Party leaders approached Dwight Eisenhower, but he refused. (The Republicans also approached him in '48 bas well, but he turned them down also. He didn't reveal his party until 1952.) Truman also had a three way split in the Democratic Party, with the new Progressive Party nominating FDR's second Vice President, Henry Wallace. The Democratic Party split again at the convention over civil rights, with southern Democrats walking out and forming the Dixiecrats behind Strom Thurmond. Despite this significant party disunity, Truman pulled off the greatest upset ever in presidential politics, and won the general election.

The one example of a sitting president being defeated in the general election without facing a strong challenge for the nomination was in 1932, when Herbert Hoover easily won the Republican nod, but was soundly defeated by Franklin Roosevelt in the general election. OF course, this was in the midst of the Great Depression, and Hoover's policies were widely blamed for exacerbating the country's economic woes.

Given that history, this could be very bad news for the president.

High T.E.A.

2010-07-13T10:01:00.000-07:00

Since Senator Reid dismisses our current taxation as 'voluntary'; how does one go about 'involuntarily' not paying taxes legally?

Second graders know when they have no pennies in the piggy bank they are told no.

Even drunker sailors know when to stop spending - when the funds run out.

Why is it that Congress continues to spend with no accountability? Not only are they spending, but also borrowoing at alarming rates with no end in sight. Now in order to get us out of debt they propose a 1% tax increase. Is this a joke? Why reward these Senators with more money that they are going to over spend and tax the American population again and again.

Memo to Congress - stop spending.

Enough is enough. It is time to vote these morons out of offfice come November.

On McChrystal Part II

2010-06-23T14:07:00.000-07:00

OK, I can see why McChrystal was fired. He's lucky to not get Court Martialed (Article 88 of the UCMJ) But why the hell did President Obama demote GEN Petraeus as his replacement? Petraeus was Central Command's Commander, i.e. McChrystal's boss.

Which brings up the question of who is replacing Petraeus at Central Command? For a while Lt. General Allen (USMC) will take over, but he's a three star and that's a 4 star slot. This also puts the Central Command in the some what odd position of having a 4 star general under the operation command of a 3 star general. Obama needs to get a replacement in a Central Command ASAP. Either promote LTGEN Allen (which might be tricky given that the USMC has a very limited number of full (i.e 4 star) generals (like one I recall correctly, the commandant of the Marines )) or find some under-employed 4 star that is willing to take that job, and please not a squid or a zomer.

Of course, IMAO, the correct sequence would have been fire McChrystal, brevet Allen to 4 stars (and get him confirmed by the US Senate ASAP), and assign him to AfPac commander. Among other things things, the USMC seems to have their collective shit together more in Afghanistan than the non-special forces US Army does. The USMC does have a longer (and more successful) history of "Small Wars" than the US Army does. But what do I know, I was just a SP/5 in the Army. Wait, that's more experience than Obama has...

On McChrystal

2010-06-22T16:15:00.000-07:00

One of the most significant events in American history was when Washington surrendered his sword to the Continental Congress, establishing the firm tradition that the military is under civilian control. This is a key ingredient of a successful free society. I haven't read the Rolling Stone article, but I suspect that I would agree with many of the opinions that General McChrystal expressed. That aside, his comments can not be defended. No man is indespensible, but even if the war effort in Afghanistan would be seriously damaged, that would be less of a threat to free society than weakening the principle of civilian control of the military. The President would be justified if he fired McChrystal and probably should.

Epic something

2010-06-07T14:16:00.001-07:00

I don't know if this is an epic win or an epic fail. It's damn sure epic, however.

see more

Opps The first in the series was some where else.

2010-06-06T10:50:00.000-07:00

Things that I sort of wish would happen to Top American Leaders ™

Couple of notes just as a point of comparison. Note that, even though it's raining he's not holding an umbrella and looking silly. For that matter he doesn't look silly after the wind hits the wreath.

Also note the serious Men in Suits standing around with brief cases. You know they have some serious firepower in those cases. I like the one staring into the hedge. What was he expecting? A raccoon or squirrel to jump out and attack?

I knew there was at least one other reason to like Sandra

2010-06-06T10:41:00.000-07:00

Sandra Bullock accepted the "Troops Choice" Award for Entertainer of The Year, which was voted on by members of the military on Spike TV's Web site.

Ignore this unless you're a MilGeek

2010-06-06T10:16:00.000-07:00

This is probably the best thing you can do with a M47A1 in a modern combat environment. It's armor isn't thick enough to stand up to modern anti-armor weapons while it's main gun is ineffective against any thing but the lightest armored fighting vehicles.

see more

On the other hand, it makes a spiffy clothes line.

This is just silly.

2010-06-06T09:44:00.000-07:00

So, where is Steve?

2nd in a series

2010-06-06T08:12:00.001-07:00

Of things that I sort of wish would happen to Top American Leaders ™

This is the Prime Minister of Turkey, ridding a horse at some sort of cut the ribbon photo op.

Hat tip: IsraellyCool

Another person with way too much time on his hands.

2010-06-05T09:54:00.001-07:00

If you upload a video to YouTube, then download it, then re-upload it, some changes in both the video and audio happens. This is a fact of life given that the MPEG encoding system is normally "lossey".

This is version 1

This is version 1000

Side note, only for web design people. Check the for the closing tag of the embed tags that YouTube give you when you do the "copy embed code" thing directly off of YouTube. It seems that the close embed tag is missing most of the time. If you get it off some one that has embedded it them self it seems to close. Odd, and a real pain on Blogger where it bitches at you if your tags aren't closed.

Flash on Linux

2010-06-05T09:34:00.000-07:00

I'm starting to hate it. It crash and burns way to much, taking Firefox with it. It's gotten to the point that every time I open a terminal window I type `ps aux | grep fox` so I can see the dead process to `kill -9` with out thinking about it. Grunt. This is the first non-beta|alpha piece of software for Linux that I've had major problems with. At first I though I had a memory chip going bad or the version of Firefox I was using had a major bug. No, it's flash. It kills the Gnome web browser "Web Browser 2.22.2" and Chrome for Linux just as badly. Yeah, I know it's been out for a while, but the latest release for Ubuntu blows goats, and not the way that at least makes goats happy.

How do you get a drummer off your porch?

2010-06-05T09:28:00.000-07:00

Pay for the pizza.

Until then check this guy out. Pay attention to the drummer starting about a minute in.

An Engishman speaking about America

2010-06-05T08:55:00.000-07:00

Can we elect this guy to something?

See if you can spot the "snipers" before they stand up.

2010-06-05T08:45:00.000-07:00

See if you can spot the "snipers" before they stand up. The first set are fairly easy. The second, not so much. Even when they lay back down they are hard to spot. Other than the saxophone player, who can't seem to hide his saxophone. As to the music, as neo-pop songs go it's fairly good

If you play table top RPG

2010-06-05T08:16:00.000-07:00

This is worth your while to have a look at. If, on the other hand you just want to see pictures of Willow and Tara in their underwear, it's also worth looking at.

If you don't play RPG or want to see hot witches in their underwear, don't click on the link.

OK, I'll take your word on it.

2010-06-05T07:55:00.001-07:00

Can I get a Spanish speaker to verify that this is in fact a pro-Israel video?

And yeah, get the brain bleach out after you watch it. It's a bit strange. Probably more so if you don't speak Spanish

Some thing to watch on Sunday nights.

2010-06-05T07:44:00.000-07:00

Top Shot.
History channel, Sunday 10/9c.

From what I've seen on the web, it seems to be "Top Chief" with guns, knives, throwing axes, long bows and more guns. Right down to the prize money and the line "And the title of Top Chief|Shot.

Plus targets that explode. Splody is good.

First show Sunday, June 6 2010

Here is an 11 minute long preview of the show.

A totally non political post

2010-06-05T07:37:00.000-07:00

This man has way too much time on his hands Way too much time.
These are not a photos. They are drawings made with a .5 mm pencil, and not using an eraser. I stand, or rather sit, in awe.

Changed the layout.

2010-06-05T07:07:00.000-07:00

I really hate layouts that have a fixed width of the content. Particularly ones that are too damn small. This one works at 1024x768, it has issues at 800x600, in that some YouTube video's are just a hair too wide. Oh freaking well.

Here begins a rant: We (blogger (and web designers in general)) really shouldn't have to worry about 800x600 pixel "Super" VGA cards/monitors in 2010. If you're still using a card/monitor that limits you to 800x600 resolution use the horizontal scroll bars at the bottom of your browser and/or watch the videos on YouTube. Then get a new video card and/or monitor. Say one made this century. And while I'm at it, I really don't care if my web pages display right in Internet Explorer version 5. I'm not too worried about them displaying right in IE 6, when it gets right down to it. At work, where I do web design for a living, I have an excuse, we are a Mac shop selling to Mac people in the main. If it display right in Internet Safari or Firefox, we are good to go. Among other things the boss is never going to see it in anything but those. I do check it against all the OS X browsers once a month or so, and my minion checks it against IE 7 so if it looks good with those, that's all we care about.

Just in case any one noticed an increase in posting here, my primary blog "Why My Life Sucks" is currently off the air due to me letting my domain name expire, due to a lack of funds over the last couple of months, so I am using this one for a while.

More to come, to include more rants and raves.

They are cheating

2010-06-05T07:00:00.000-07:00

While funny and some what absurd, they are cheating here. Those tones aren't DTMF. (Dual Tone Multi Freqency) aka TouchTones. The fact that I can tell this sort of bothers me, but I'll chalk it up to to damn many years working telcom.

Arhhh!

2010-06-05T06:50:00.000-07:00

On the Video's below do the "watch on YouTube" thing, because our freaking layout is too damn narrow to show them right. Going to fix that in my copious free time.

Update: Width issues fixed. You can watch them here.

On a semi non political note

2010-06-05T06:45:00.000-07:00

This guy is funny. And speaks truth to power, or something like that.

Too bad I don't like either company's dounuts

2010-06-05T06:35:00.000-07:00

Or I would have totally done this.

Israeli Tea party?

2010-06-05T06:29:00.000-07:00

Seems like Israel should take something from the Tea Party movement. This seems like a winner to me. If and when there is a Tea Party in "medium sized city", this would be the flag I would carry.

Big Brass Ones.

2010-06-05T06:19:00.000-07:00

As the LawDog says "That right there is a young man with a set of big brass ones." I say he's pretty brave waving an Israeli flag in LA, never mind at a Hamas demonstration. The LAPD did look like they were ready and willing to knock the crap out of any of the Hamas sympathizers that did any thing but yell at the guy. Allah Akbar my ass.

Rock on French Lawyer Lady.

2010-05-19T14:37:00.001-07:00

It's not often I like a French person or a lawyer, much less a French Lawyer, but in this case I'll make an exception Rock on French Lawyer Lady.

Drunken Sailors

2010-04-21T15:07:00.000-07:00

The Government is not spending money like a drunken sailor.

Drunken sailors quit spending when they run out of money.

Snort.

2010-04-14T10:40:00.000-07:00

From Howie Carr.

"Which of the following two groups contains the most former grand dragons of the Ku Klux Klan - the first 59 Tea Party people you run into this morning, or the U.S. Senate Democratic caucus?"

The morality of the state.

2010-04-07T07:57:00.000-07:00

In Junior High, I read The Moon is a Harsh Mistress by Heinlein. In it Heinlein asks, through the character of Prof, "when is it morally permissible for the state to commit an act that would be immoral for an individual?" (I paraphrase.) Over the years, I have tried to draw that line in my mind, but so far have failed to do so to my own satisfaction. Sometimes I feel the answer should be "never", but that doesn't really work in the real world. So where is the line?

What a Deal

2010-03-24T14:27:00.000-07:00

My understanding of current law: If you think you are healthy and want to take a risk, you can avoid several thousand dollars in insurance premiums and pay a yearly fine of $750. If you are wrong and contract some dreadful disease, you can then sign up for "insurance" and the "pre-existing condition" will be covered. Add a medical rider to your car insurance to cover the initial medical expenses of a car wreck and you are good.

I'm sure no one will do that.

Health Care

2010-03-21T21:04:00.000-07:00

AARGHH !!!!!

Ban recounts

2009-12-08T12:20:00.001-08:00

I think we should ban recounts. Hold an election. Count the votes. Declare a winner. The end. You lost by one vote out 20,000,000 cast? Sucks to be you.

I came to this conclusion the other day as I was reading a book on probability ("The Drunkard's Walk" by Leonard Mlodinow). In it he discusses briefly the 2005 governor's election in Washington. After 2 recounts the Democrat was declared the winner. The first count had the Republican up by 261 votes out of 3,000,000 cast. The second had the Republican up by 41. The third had the Democrat up by 10. Then 700 "lost votes" were found which brought the Democrat up by 129 votes.

In reality, a swing of 399 votes out of three million is little more than statistical noise. Assuming that the first count and all of the recounts are done scrupulously and impartially, then there is no reason to think that any of the recounts is more accurate than the first count. All counts of large numbers are approximate.

In the modern world, however, there is actually reason to think that recounts may be less accurate than the original count. Since 2000, at least, both sides "lawyer up" for recounts. Ballots are found, ballots are disqualified. Local and state elected officials must make decisions, giving rise to the real threat of partisan tampering. lawyers for a campaign will argue with a straight face that certain ballots from areas dominated by the opposing party should not be counted while identical ballots from their strongholds should be. Tempers rise and accusations come from both parties that the other party is trying to steal the election. The final result may well be governed by which side had the better lawyers and the partisan sympathies of state and local officials (including judges.) One thing is certain though, bitterness will ensue.

I see two alternate possibilities. The first is to call any contest within certain statistical parameters a tie and settle the election by random means. (Preferably Bear, Ninja, Cowboy). The downside here, is that the party that had the "most" votes will feel cheated. The second is just accept the result. Since in very close elections who actually has the most votes is a random matter, there really is no need to add another random test. Just declare the person who had the most votes the winner and move on.

Indivdual Mandates

2009-10-28T19:54:00.001-07:00

Some, though not all, of the health plans floating around Washington feature what is called an "individual mandate". The basic idea is to require every person to carry some form of health insurance. Without an individual mandate, some of the other "reforms" being proposed such as requiring insurers to cover preexisting conditions simply won't work. (If no one was required to carry insurance, and insurers had to cover preexisting conditions, why would any one have insurance coverage before they got sick?) Individual mandates were a big issue in the early stages of the Democratic presidential primaries last year. Strangely, Hillary was for them and the President was against them. Things have changed.

One question that isn't asked much, is this "Would an individual mandate be constitutional?" So far as I know, this idea is actually completely unprecedented. Never in the history of this country, has the government required, by law, that every citizen buy a particular type of product. Auto insurance comes closest, but I have two adult siblings who don't have auto insurance. One is a life-long pedestrian and the other lives in New York City and doesn't have a car.

The only possible place in the Constitution that would give Congress this authority is the Commerce Clause, which gives Congress the power to regulate interstate commerce. Now, the Supreme Court has stretched to Commerce Clause so much that growing wheat or marijuana for your own personal use constitutes engaging in interstate commerce and therefore subject to regulation by Congress. The Court, however, has also ruled that the Commerce Clause is not infinitely elastic, ruling that a federal law mandating gun-free zones around schools could not come under the Commerce Clause. So the question is, Does refusing to engage in an economic activity - that is, refusing to buy health insurance - constitute engaging in interstate commerce?. I would argue that, quite obviously, it doesn't, and that Congress does not have the authority to order me to do so.

It is also obvious that if this is found to be constitutional, it will not be the last "individual mandate" to come out of Washington.

Nobel

2009-10-09T18:13:00.000-07:00

Trivia question: Who has won the most Nobel Peace
Prizes?

Answer: Iam Notbush.

Carter was faintly plausible, Gore was an obvious slap, Obama was just silly.

It seems that nominations for the Nobel close on Feb 1. 10 days after THE ONE was inaugurated. I don't know when final voting was.

I predict an Emmy for his role as himself at one his many press conferences.

Nobel Effort?

2009-10-09T16:04:00.001-07:00

I’m not going to make any long rants about the Nobel committee being taken over by the far left loons. Too easy. Nor will I comment on how the Nobel committee is more committed to influencing the simple minded rather than honoring achievement. After Carter I thought the Nobel committee had fallen a step or two. Honoring a noble (pardon the pun), yet failed effort. There is no doubt they had definitely over reached in the Gore episode.

But Obama? What has this man done? What has he achieved other than not being named Bush or Clinton? This is like giving out the Heisman Trophy at the end of August workouts. The promise is there, but promise is what gets you beat in November.

How do I view this “award”? This is the Nobel version on the NOW / Paula Corbin Jones affair. A group that started with high ideals and genuine purpose has descended into parody and any destroyed their own credibility. So bent on political ideology they have completely lost sight of the founding mission. In three years the Nobel committee will wonder why their prestige is down and people are ignoring them. I just wonder how they are going to blame it all on Bush.

Acorn, Peanuts, and Pecans

2009-10-07T21:27:00.001-07:00

I have heard on at least two TV shows, three radio programs, and numerous blogs that Acorn is dead. That the undercover reporting and evidence of corruption and malfeasance have finally force Congress to move and funding will be cut. Conservatives are jumping with joy, laughing, and back-slapping; reveling in the failure of Acorn and acting as if a major victory has been achieved.

Has a major blow been dealt? The Acorn is dead, long live the oak. How many people are part of the Acorn structure? 1000? 5000? 10,000? Doesn’t matter. The entire downfall will affect only about 15-25 people. All these people were hired and given titular titles, chosen for their loyalty and dedication to the cause. The intelligence and power of the organization do not appear on org charts or show up at the offices. The rest of the group, the rank and file worker bees, will remain anonymous and unindicted.

What will happen in the end? Simple, the power will start Seeding, Pecan, or Hopychange; complete with a title to fit the acronym, and the rank worker bees will be hired and resume the same duties in roughly the same buildings and all will continue as it always has.
This is a pyrrhic victory for conservatives.

There is one way to change this nothing into a small win. Snatch a tie from the jaws of stupidity. The only way is to leverage all the current public sentiment into stopping Federal funding of ALL these type of sham do-gooder groups. No Federal money, no corruption. The people who will then actually have to work to raise the funds will make practical and reasonable efforts to ensure that it goes to the purported ends. The true believers: left, right, and center, will still work to achieve their political ends. That is fine with me. I just don’t see why it is up to Congress to continue funding these types of organizations.

Holy Crap!

2009-09-24T08:44:00.000-07:00

This has been identified as this is B. Bernice Young Elementary School in Burlington Township, NJ by Michelle Malkin. This is a public school.

Note the lyrics:

"He said "Red, yellow, black, or white, all are equal in his sight"
Mm mm mm...Barack Hussein Obama!"

Now note the lyrics to "Jesus Loves the Little Children":

"Black and yellow, red and white, They are precious in His sight
Jesus loves the little children of the world"

I am so glad we homeschool.

Modern Men.

2009-09-21T07:19:00.000-07:00

Real men take swords into battle. And longbows. And bagpipes. Even during World War II.

We are wimps. Every damn one of us.

Human?

2009-09-16T19:27:00.000-07:00

Although I despise the fact some less-then-esteemed members of the fourth estate violated the conditions of "off-the-record", I have to admit I enjoyed the Presidents off the cuff remark about Kanye West. Calling Mr. West a "Jackass" is both accurate and appropriate.

As for Mr. West, his force field (to protect from criticism) defense of "I'm upset at my mothers death" given new meaning to the term lame-excuse.

As a populace we have spent so much time being politically correct, we have forgotten how to criticize and condemn. As a society we are needy of being non-judgemental and being quick to forgive. We are petrified that our condemnation will offend.

So, lets get the party started: Kanye West is a jackass! (Oh how offensive)!. I"m sorry (apology), but my Grandmother's husband is very sick and not expected to make it. (Force field).

To paraphrase the First Lady: For the first time I'm proud of President Obama.

Will He or Won't He

2009-09-15T14:59:00.000-07:00

Just wondering; if health care reform, aka Obamacare, fails, will the President still attempt to realize the $500 million in saving due to graft, fraud, waste, and corruption in Medicare?

Health Care and Rights

2009-09-08T10:54:00.001-07:00

A key component to the ongoing debate on health care is the claim by some proponents that all people have or should have a right to health care. I do not believe that this is so. My belief comes from under my understanding of the nature of rights and of the right to property in particular.

Many philosophers draw a distinction between two types of rights, negative and positive rights. A negative right does not require anyone to do anything, merely refrain from acting in a way that would violate that right. My right to life does not require you to do anything, it merely requires you to refrain from killing me. All basic rights, including the right to life, the right to liberty, the right to free speech and press, the right to bear arms, the right to free exercise of religion, the right to assembly, the right to property, and others, are negative rights. Negative rights, in and of themselves, do not, however, require action on the part of others. I can watch you be murdered, and not lift a hand to defend you, without violating your rights.

Positive rights require others to do things. My right to vote requires that the government and its representatives hold elections. It is difficult for me to hold a positive right without infringing on the negative rights of others. Many libertarian thinkers hold that positive rights can only be acquired through contract. In this view, only those people with whom you have contracted have a positive duty to provide the services needed for you exercise your positive rights. I, for the most part, agree with this, with the important caveat that some contracts are not explicit, but rather implicit. Some implicit contracts are woven into the fabric of society and by participating in society you are agreeing to these implicit contrracts. Although these societal contracts can create duties, since these duties will, by their nature, impinge on the rights of the members of society, societal contracts should be no more extensive than absolutely necessary.

The right to property is, as I see it, a basic right. I am entitled to the fruits of my labor, and no one else is. Since I own the fruits of my labor, I may do with it what I will. I may choose give others the fruits of my labor either out of the goodness of my heart, or in as part of a contract into which I have freely entered. To deprive me of the fruits of my labor against my consent is tyranny. The right to property can actually be seen as one of the most fundamental of rights. The right to a free press is nothing more than the right to do whatever I want with my printing press. The rights of assembly, of free exercise, to bear arms, and other rights are, in a similar way, derived from the right to property. Even the rights to life and liberty are in way property rights. I own my self, and to deprive me of my life or freedom is deprive me of the enjoyment of my property.

All of this is pretty theoretical, and none of it is original with me, but they really are the views that my political decisions are rise from. Now to apply them to the health care debate. A right to health care, if such a thing were to exist, would obviously be a positive right. It would impose on medical providers on obligation to treat without payment or an obligation for others to pay for the services. This is an impingement on basic rights, which should only be done with great fear and trepidation. Even if I were happy to provide free health care or pay so that others could get health care, I do not have the right to impose that on others. I may do what I want with my property, but not with yours. (As it happens, I have provided health care for free, and payed for other's health care outside of the usual taxes and cost shifting by which every paying patient pays for other's health care.)

In addition to the theoretical reasons to oppose the establishment of health care as a right, there are practical ones, which I will discuss later.

Health Care Notes

2009-08-26T11:43:00.000-07:00

Some random thoughts on health care, and the reform there of.

This is an old story but it bears some examination. In October, 2008, then-Senator Obama's grandmother was reported as having broken her hip. She had "hip replacement" surgery. She died about a week later.

On April 14 of this year, President Obama gave an interview about health care reform to the New York Times, in which he said:

"THE PRESIDENT: I don't know how much that hip replacement cost. I would have paid out of pocket for that hip replacement just because she's my grandmother. Whether, sort of in the aggregate, society making those decisions to give my grandmother, or everybody else's aging grandparents or parents, a hip replacement when they're terminally ill is a sustainable model, is a very difficult question. If somebody told me that my grandmother couldn't have a hip replacement and she had to lie there in misery in the waning days of her life -- that would be pretty upsetting.

NYT: And it's going to be hard for people who don't have the option of paying for it.

THE PRESIDENT: So that's where I think you just get into some very difficult moral issues. But that's also a huge driver of cost, right?

I mean, the chronically ill and those toward the end of their lives are accounting for potentially 80 percent of the total health care bill out here.

NYT: So how do you -- how do we deal with it?

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I think that there is going to have to be a conversation that is guided by doctors, scientists, ethicists. And then there is going to have to be a very difficult democratic conversation that takes place. It is very difficult to imagine the country making those decisions just through the normal political channels. And that's part of why you have to have some independent group that can give you guidance. It's not determinative, but I think has to be able to give you some guidance. And that's part of what I suspect you'll see emerging out of the various health care conversations that are taking place on the Hill right now." [The New York Times Magazine, 4/28/09]

There's a lot here that needs to be unpacked. Let's start with the term "hip replacement". First some anatomy. The hip is basically a ball and socket joint. The ball is the end of the femur (the large bone between the hip and knee). The ball is known as the "head of the femur". The head of the femur is joined the the rest of the femur by a column of bone known as "the neck". The socket of the joint is in the pelvis and is known as the "acetabulum". Normally bone gets its blood supply from the tissue surrounding it know as "periosteum". However, because the head of the femur rotates within the acetabulum blood can not get to it from surrounding tissues. So the head gets its blood supply from the periosteum of the neck of the femur. Without blood supply a bone will die.

When most people hear the term "hip replacement" what comes to mind is what is known as a "total hip arthroplasty", or simply "total hip". Total hips are usually done for patients with hip pain from arthritis. In it the head of the femur is replaced, and the a new socket lining is placed in the acetabulum. It is essentially an elective, quality of life surgery.

This is not what was done for the President's grandmother. She broke her hip. What is done for a broken hip depends on the nature on location of the break. If the break is below the neck, then a variety of plates, screws and other hardware can be used to hold the bone in place until it heals naturally. If the break is across the neck and the head has not moved in relation to the neck, then some screws can be placed across the break, and the bone will usually heal naturally. If, however, the head has moved in relation to the neck, then the blood supply through the neck to the head has been disrupted. The head is going to die, so it must be replaced. Until it is, the patient must be kept in traction to reduce the movement of the joint, because every time the joint moves the ends of the broken bone will grind together, which is very painful. Traction reduces, but does not eliminate movement of the joint.

This, then, is the surgery that the President's grandmother received. She did not receive the hip replacement that the nice old man down the block got so that he could continue to play golf. She got the hip replacement that people get to relieve the constant pain from a broken bone. Unless a patient is within hours of death, it is cruel to not perform this procedure. This is the procedure that the President feels that society should consider denying to the terminally ill.

Let's talk about the other issues. The President clearly sees a two-tier system here. HE would pay for the procedure out of pocket, because he loves his grandmother, and he is rich. My grandmother? Sucks to be me.

Now let's talk about the last paragraph. "Not determinative", but "guidance". Congress did not act in a determinative manner when it wanted a 55 mph speed limit. The states were free to choose any speed limit they wanted, but Congress offered "guidance", along with consequences for not following that guidance. Guidance from the body that holds the purse strings is determinative.

Let's also discuss the term "terminally ill". Ted Kennedy was terminally ill for over a year. If he had broken his hip on the same day as the President's grandmother, should he have been denied treatment?

Here's another interesting tidbit. "the chronically ill and those toward the end of their lives are accounting for potentially 80 percent of the total health care bill out here." Oh, he means sick people. Turns out that sick people use most of the health care resources. Who would have thought that? If we could just keep from spending health care resources on sick people, the health care crisis would be over.

In short, what the President seems to be saying is that there should be some sort of "independent group" that operates outside of the normal political process, that offers guidance. This group would consider whether, in the aggregate, certain treatments are appropriate in certain circumstances. These guidelines will not be "determinative", but they will be guidelines and they will be pushed by those with the purse strings. Part of the goal will be to reduce the cost of sick people to the health care system. But there will be no Death Panels.

The Left, the CIA, and the DMV

2009-08-26T09:32:00.000-07:00

The last few weeks have had several breaking news stories about how the CIA poorly handled the entire process of recruiting and training ‘interrogators’. (Ok, everyone knows that they were really torturers, but that pesky liability law keeps getting in the way). These stories also appeared to magically precede the Obama administration announcement for more oversight on the issue but I’m sure that is a coincidence and good journalism, not collusion. (We all know the national media is simply a detached arbiter and treats the Obama administration with the same professional reserve with which it treated the Bush administration).

The basic premise of these articles was the CIA was unorganized and inept in their attempts to train interrogators (torturers) for Gitmo and other dens of inequity during the misguided attempt to thwart international terrorism. What was found is the CIA had no real training program and very little idea as to what it was doing. The media (I would say leftist media, but is there another kind?) appear to think this is a huge story. But, hey, anyone who has ever been to the DMV would be shocked if it were any other way. All government agencies eventually descend to befuddled incompetence over time.

The real issue is the lefts perception of the CIA. The left has spent years and dedicated millions to portraying the CIA as this huge spy machine, capable of chasing Jason Bourne across the world from a lap-top in New York. Equipment so sophisticate it can hack into and use an image from a surveillance camera three blocks away and, in seconds, come up with 3D images and assign motivations to continue to track its prey. When, in fact, they are just another group of people hamstrung by too much regulation, petty bureaucrats, and budget constraints. Every real world example of the CIA shows a group of people with no more skills or power to read minds then the people at GM, Proctor and Gamble or IBM. These real world examples also show a group that has the additions burdens of Congressional oversight and government red tape that ends up making them look like the Marx Brothers instead of the Tom Clancy warriors they are so often feared to be.

The articles also said a whole lot more then they intended. Between the lines, if the vaulted CIA, terrors of the world and, according to people who also support Nancy Pelosi, the only true and viable threat to world peace are truly befuddled incompetents what does that say about the ability of a government bureaucracy to run anything effectively and efficiently? Ok, I actually believer the CIA are hard working people who make do with what they have, and more importantly the bureaucratic constraints the must operate within.

The real problems within the CIA, the DMV, the IRS, the Post Office, or any other government agency are the very nature of governments. In non-governmental organizations rules are advisable set of conditions that are altered when needed or broken when necessary. Rules within these organizations are more like guidelines. Discretion and performance can lead to a rule breaker being celebrated for a great idea or exceptional service. Within government organizations rules are laws and any rule violation, no matter how necessary or practical, are dealt with harshly (up to and including jail time) and subject to oversight. Once Congress gets involved it is the end of progress.

Why do I discuss this small news event in such detail? One simple question: do we really want the same people applying the same rules to our health care system?

Un-American or Patriot?

2009-08-16T17:55:00.000-07:00

Why was it an act of Patriotism under the Bush administration to protest the Iraq war; yet under the Obama administration it is un-American, according to Nancy Pelosi, to question anything Obama proposes?

This of course pertains to the hotly debated Obamacare Plan.

How much more spending can we as Americans tolerate?!?

Why is Obamacare acceptable for the Plebians; yet, Congress maintains a separate plan?!?

Some day no one will march there at all.

2009-08-06T17:54:00.000-07:00

The last World War I veteran in Britain, and the last man to have fought in the trenches, was laid to rest today. Harry Patch was a private in the Duke of Cornwall's Light Infantry. He arrived in France in June of 1917, and was wounded on September 22 by an artillery shell, which killed three of his comrades. His funeral was in Wells Cathedral in front of a crowd of 14oo, including the Duchess of Cornwall and the Duchess of Gloucester. Thousands more watched on big screens on the cathedral green. His pallbearers were, at his request, privates from the The Rifles, the successor unit to the Duke of Cornwall's Light Infantry. The pallbearers were all about 19 years old, the age Patch was when he was wounded. His coffin was followed by soldiers from the armies of France, Belgium and Germany. A lesson was read by Dr Eckhard Lubkemeier, charge d'affaires at the German Embassy. An extract from Patch's biography, was read by the Belgian charge d'affaires, Marie-France Andre.

As the coffin left the cathedral, it paused and Last Post was played. An old friend of Patch read from the Ode of Remembrance: They shall grow not old, as we that are left grow old: / Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn. and then read three names "Jack, Jill and Maudy." These were the nicknames of the three comrades killed by the shell that wounded Patch.

Patch selected the music for his funeral. In addition to his favorite hymns, the congregation sang "Where have all the flowers gone."

"Where have all the soldiers gone? Gone to graveyards every one.

Harry Patch Requiescat in Pace

Forty Years Ago Today.

2009-07-20T14:18:00.000-07:00

65 Years ago today

2009-06-06T09:59:00.000-07:00

D-day.

It's some how troubling to me to realize that some one born on D-day can retire.

It's due, I'm sure, to my age, but WWII Vets are supposed to be the grown ups in charge. I'm not supposed to be the oldest person in my office.

Twenty years ago today

2009-06-04T08:01:00.000-07:00

Twenty years ago the Goddess of Democracy fell, run over by a tank. Claudia Rosett has an editorial in the WSJ on what she saw at Tianamen square that day.

Since the Tiananmen uprising of 1989, China's rulers have loosened the economic strictures enough to allow remarkable growth -- testament to the vibrancy of the Chinese people given even half a chance. Out of this, China's rulers have devoted enormous resources to projects meant to suggest they run a modern nation -- sending astronauts into space, convening conferences on the climate, and hosting the 2008 Olympics.

Count me unimpressed. The real sign of modernity will come when China opens up its political system enough so that the country's leaders no longer fear June 4 but treat the Tiananmen uprising with the honor it deserves.

Four pictures to remember:

This image haunts me. They are so young, they may well guess what lies in store for them, yet they dance. I often wonder what became of them.

The Goddess and Mao.

All of this makes me want to go through my house and throw everything made in China.

Welcome to Bizarro World

2009-06-01T08:54:00.000-07:00

For non-comic book geeks, Bizarro World is a planet in the Superman universe, where all things are opposite of Earth. We live there now.

Pravda has run an editorial lamenting America's slow fall into Marxism.

"The final collapse has come with the election of Barack Obama. His speed in the past three months has been truly impressive. His spending and money printing has been a record setting, not just in America's short history but in the world. If this keeps up for more then another year, and there is no sign that it will not, America at best will resemble the Wiemar Republic and at worst Zimbabwe."

Happy Memorial Day

2009-05-25T16:13:00.000-07:00

I did some driving today and listened to some NPR. Sigh. Like many Americans today (including, evidently, our President) there is some confusion as to the purpose of Memorial Day. All of the shows had Veteran oriented themes, but that would more appropriate to Veteran's Day, which we don't celebrate much anymore. Memorial Day is about remembering and honoring the dead. (I can understand NPR's dilemma. Dead people make for poor radio.)

Any way no one has ever said it better;

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

Stupid now and then

2009-05-25T10:03:00.001-07:00

Stupid now and then, 2nd in a series of rants

Consider this person: Graduate of Oxford, quotes classics in day to day conversations, has an extensive written and spoken vocabulary, speaks 2 languages, seeks and takes the advise of experts on subjects that he is lacking in. Can do complex probability calculations in his head.

Sounds like a pretty bright guy right?

I, of course mean Bertie Wooster, the touchstone of "stupid" of a bygone era. Yes, lacking in common sense and needs that first cup of tea in the morning, but all in all, a bright fellow, by modern standards.

When I had my moment of clarity it also came to me that Bertie, despite what Jeeves and his Aunts say, isn't dumb, he's just not devious and, to be truthful, missing a bit of common sense.

Westside Story and the fall of American Cities

2009-05-17T11:45:00.000-07:00

A random rant, first in a series.

Arthur Laurents,Leonard Bernstein and Stephen Sondheim are responsible for the crack drug disaster of the late 20th century. László Benedek and Stanley Kramer also have a lot to answer for.

At a critical point in American recent history, when drug gangs were starting to make their selves felt on the inner cities of the both the rust belt and SoCal, a large part of White Bread America heard the term "Youth Gangs" and instead of thinking "this is some thing that needs to be done about RIGHT FREAKING NOW" thought "Westside Story" and blew it off. At worst they though "The Wild One", regardless, they didn't take it seriously. The result? Millions of lives destroyed, large parts of American cities made "No Go Zones", not to mention rap music and the whole hip/hop culture, a target of a future rant.

In real life the cycle of violence was not broken, in real life Maria would have pulled the trigger over Tony's body and the two gangs would not have ended their blood feud because of one crying woman. In real life their would have been a major gun battle. In real life Lt. Schrank and Sgt. Krupke are, or should be, the heroes, not a bunch of murdering thugs. As much as I would like to blame this one on boomers, I can't. They weren't quite in charge when the youth gang crises started. This, like a lot of other things, can be laid squarely in June Cleaver's lap. Why I said June, not June and Ward is also the subject of another rant.

"Ding"

2009-04-28T19:37:00.000-07:00

I guess Air Force One has never heard of Photoshop?!?

Instead let's waste $328,000, and counting, of the tax payers dollars to update the portfolio of an arrogant President.

When will the madness end?

Happy Birthday

2009-04-02T17:01:00.000-07:00

You're old TOO

What's in an Acronym?

2009-02-25T13:12:00.000-08:00

Does anyone else find it ironic that the acronym for Pelosi, Michelle, Barak, and Reid is POOR?

A random thought

2009-02-23T17:24:00.000-08:00

In past wars of the US (and pseudo US) the rallying cry of the troops tended to be "Remember " where blank expands to The Maine, Pearl Harbor, The Lusitania, The Chosin, or The Alamo.

Of wars of any duration (there by ruling out Grenada, Panama and Desert Storm) we find the following exceptions

The Revolution. "Don't tread on me", "Live free or Die" "Liberty or Death"

The Civil War. "The Union Forever" or random screams AKA the "Rebel Yell".

Viet Nam "N days and a wake up" (where N equals number of days left in country, normally under 335 (one year, less one year's worth of leave == 335 days 'in country'))

The Long War AKA Global War on Terror, AKA Enduring Freedom. "Let's Roll". (see footnote)

This says something about both what the war is about, and what the troops are thinking. Of these, only one, that for The Long War is a take action sort of thing. I'll grant it's also a memorial quote as well.

I'll also grant I don't have a clue about the War of 1812 and the Mexican American war.

Like I said, random thought.

Footnote. For a while I was following Mr. Pournell's lead and was calling the war between the US and the USSR (1917-1989) "The Long War", but the US Military is now calling the GWoT "The Long War" now. I'm not sure how I feel about that, but I strongly suspect my preferred choice "The Final Crusade" would not be taken. Still does my heart good to know that one of the men calling in air strikes on Taliban positions is, in his heart of hearts a Paladin, a follower of the Lion Hearted King and a Crusader for Good.

Greatest Foreign Policy Speech Ever.

2009-02-23T08:33:00.001-08:00

Sorry for the delay. As much as I admire Churchill, this is the greatest foreign policy speech ever.

Young Lawyers in Love

2009-02-20T13:04:00.000-08:00

I guess the high cost of law school and estimates that America may be producing more lawyers than the market needs has caught the eye of the President and Barak Obama is here to save these poor legal eagles. For young lawyers are going to be the only real beneficiaries of the stimulus bill. I predict, and I think I am conservative in this number, that 80% of the cost of all these “shovel-ready” infrastructure improvement projects will go to lawyers who litigate the wet-lands, dry-land, endangered species, minority quota-driven, law suits over the next decade. The government will be suing itself: Federal vs. Federal, State vs. State, local vs. local, and any other combination you can imagine. Yes, and there will be a needs for many more judges just to handle the workload, but the ACLU will gladly help with a list of “qualified” candidates. Fortunately Barak and Michelle were young lawyers who understood the need for young lawyers to find gainful employment.

A final thought, should my prediction be true, that is 80% of $787 billion is $630 billion to the legal profession. The one group that needs a bailout…NOT.

Sharks versus Jets

2009-02-20T12:40:00.000-08:00

Congress, and an extremely compliant press, has been rallying the country against something once again, This time the Democrat party, self professed to be the party against hate in all forms, is worked up into a visceral rage and the bull’s-eye is on airplanes, corporate jets to be precise. On a side note, can you imagine what these people would do if they ever felt hate? It boggles the mind, but I digress.

I have two opinions about this anti-executive air crusade. The first is for companies that accepted government bailouts…GO FOR IT. In keeping with today’s theme of two, I will submit two reasons. First, limited executive perks by congressional fiat may actually have the benefit of preventing most executives from selling their public trust to the Capitol Hill Mob for a little of the easy life. While CEOs might actually have to do their jobs, it is a small price to pay for using the Gulf Stream or the Lear. Secondly, if we allow the logic that acceptance of public funds is sufficient cause to dictate terms-of-use to the receiver, this might give leverage over the NEA crowd. In other words, if we can tell executives at Citibank that if “you take our money you have to take our direction” the same will apply to Robert Mapplethorpe. Okay, I realize the latter requires consistency of message from a liberal, but I can dream that the left-wingers will grow up and realize that hypocrisy is not a virtue.

My second opinion deals with telling the CEOs of companies who manage to show some semblance of self restraint and don’t go hat-in-hand to the Potomac Raiders. To these men I say, fly to your hearts’ content. First, I think this is something the stockholders need to watch and, if they are happy, it really doesn’t hurt me. For that matter, it doesn’t hurt you either, so relax. My final reason is less personal: do you remember the American yacht industry? It was destroyed by the luxury tax. Did this do anything to the "soak-the-rich" Americans who wanted the 45-foot ocean going schooner? No, they just went to England or Jamaica to buy their toys. But boat builders and handlers were suddenly out-of-work. There are lots of small businesses employing many people in the private jet industry who would suddenly be closed due to lack of work. Those employees would be losing jobs they love, simply because of nothing more than petty jealousies.

The banning of Childhood. The burning of books.

2009-02-16T14:44:00.000-08:00

OK, maybe banning of childhood is a bit of an overstatement. Instead what Congress has done is ban everything associated with childhood not made by large companies which specialize almost exclusively in children's products. Small companies, start-up companies, and large companies which have children's products as a side line have been pushed out of the market by act of Congress. Small companies, by the way include that nice old man at the farmer's market who makes wooden toys and that lady on the internet who makes those darling little girl dresses by hand. Why have all of these businesses been banned? To protect the children of course.

You may remember last year's scare about lead in paint used in some toys made in China. You may also remember that Congress responded with the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act (CPSIA), which banned lead and phthalates in any product intended for use by children under the age of 12. Every component of every product must be tested for lead by independent testing agencies. (There is not, by the way, a large scale testing industry in existence, as there was no demand. Congress assumed that an industry that did not exist could be created within a few months) Every variation must be tested separately and every lot must be tested. So the old man making toys must test each component of the toy. If he comes up with a new design, all of the components must be tested, even if they were tested before for previous designs. Same thing for the lady making little girl dresses. (Different sizes count as different designs, by the way.) It is obvious that only the largest companies are going to be able to afford the testing required by these laws. Not only will the small craftsmen be put out of business, but also the many small companies. The type of specialty toy maker that does a few hundred thousand dollars in sales every year and employs a handful of people, you know, the makers of all of the really cool toys, is history. Companies that primarily make goods for adults will likely avoid the added costs by dropping their children's lines.

One might think, that at least I will be able to get some of these things through the used market, but no, Congress banned that as well. CPSIA applies to all goods made for children regardless of when they were made. This means that the resale market will have to remove or test all items made for children. The stores, of course, will remove them. So in a time of economic hardship, Congress has just made it impossible for parents to save on children's clothing costs by going to Goodwill. I know from experience that it is possible to keep a child in clothes that were initially quite expensive for less than Wal-Mart prices. Children outgrow clothing before they wear them out. They often outgrow them before they appear to have been worn at all. Good-bye to all of that.

One of the real tragedies is that this travesty of a law applies to everything sold for children, including books. The Consume Products Protection Agency has graciously exempted used books which were printed after 1985 from the testing requirements. The books must be of normal bindings and have no lead components. Prior to 1985 lead was used in some of the inks used in children's books. (That is, by the way, why the colors in the illustrations of old books are often so rich.) Of course for the ink to damage a child, the child must eat the book. Vintage books are excepted if by age or price it is likely that purchasers are going to be adult collectors rather than children. Some businesses will try this dodge to continue old children's books, but let's be real, a third printing of a kid's book from 1967 is just not collectible. What this means is that most out of print children's books are now illegal to sell. If you want older editions for you kids, tough luck. You can no longer search for that book with the pretty illustrations you loved as a child. If you are lucky, a new reprint might be available, but only if the book is famous, or won a major award like the Newbery or Caldecott. Even then it might only be available in paperback. There are some truly great books out there that have never been reprinted and this heritage will be lost forever.

Ah, but what about libraries, you ask. Surely libraries will preserve this heritage. First, most library books do not have a lifespan of more than twenty years. The books fall apart from being handled so much. Second, the law applies to libraries. Libraries can not loan out books printed prior to 1985 without having them tested. The testing required is wet testing. Wet and books do not mix. Old books can not be tested without destroying them. Besides, we already know that many of them will fail. An even more serious problem is that it is next to impossible for a library to tell when a book was printed. Printing date is not one of the pieces of bibliographic information that libraries routinely include in their records. Copyright date, and edition number, yes, printing date, no. In fact it is often impossible, even by examining the book itself, to determine the printing date. The only safe route would be to sequester all books with a pre-1985 copyright date until it can be determined when the book was printed. Of course books aren't shelved in order of copyright, so every book in the children's section would have to examined or moved. Most libraries do not have the manpower to do this. It will costs libraries millions of dollars to sort and replace books. This is money that does not exist.

This is not speculation. The law took effect on February 10. There have been reports of used bookstores pulling all pre-1985 children's books. Bookstores can not afford to store books they are not selling. These books are being discarded. The book burning has begun. For the children.

The greatest foreign policy speech of the first half of the 20th century.

2009-02-07T01:34:00.000-08:00

Possibly ever.

Happy Birthday

2009-02-06T19:15:00.000-08:00

Ninety eight years ago today Ronald Wilson Reagan was born. I shudder to think what he would have made of this week's stimulus discussion.

And now an excerpt from the greatest foreign policy speech of the last half of the 20th century.

On the inauguration

2009-01-20T18:16:00.000-08:00

I didn't watch. My family and I went birding. We had a great time. We went to a small local reservoir that we go to often. We saw some Common Mergansers, which I have never seen on that lake before. The highlight was chancing upon a flock of about 10,000 Red-winged Blackbirds. Overwhelming without being frightening. But enough about birds.

I've read the President's inaugural address and have a few comments. Many of these points have been noted elsewhere.

"Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. "

He flubbed one of my favourite trivia questions. Barack Obama is the 44th President of the United States. How many men have been President of the United States? Answer: 43. Grover Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th president, but only one man.

"we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord."

That's right McCain ran on a program of fear, conflict and discord.

"For us, they fought and died, in places like Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh."

And Iraq and Afghanistan. To ignore the battlefields of the wars in which are currently engaged is ungracious, at best. (The Argonne and Chosin could have been mentioned as well, but then those are forgotten men from forgotten wars.)

On a broader point those that traveled across oceans, toiled in sweatshops, and settled the West, didn't do it for us, they did it for themselves and their families. We reap the benefits of what they did, but that's not why they did it.

"But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions — that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America."

Unpleasant decisions, like committing troops to an unpopular war? Protecting narrow interests, like making it easier for union thugs to intimidate workers by denying them the right to a secret ballot?

"We will restore science to its rightful place."

Meaning we will keep it way from politics? Or use it as a hammer to beat on our opponents? Seriously, science is not equipped to make value judgements. You can use the scientific method to determine the effects of hypothermia by experimenting on humans, But it isn't science that will tell you that it is morally repugnant to do so.

"(We will) wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost."

Aside from the weird use of wield here, technology raises health costs, not lowers it. 1960s health care was much cheaper. It also didn't have today's wonder drugs, MRI machines, robotic surgery, endoscopic surgery, CAT scans, advanced monitering like Oxygen saturation monitors, the list goes on and on. These are great things, but they are also expensive.

"The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works ... Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end."

I look forward to the list of programs that will end, or maybe this is just a rhetorical device to defend big government.

"As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals. "

Not so subtle dig here at his predecessor, here.

Sigh, I can't dissect this any longer. A dominant theme was that America needs to change, and change everything. We need to start doing things, many of which we already doing, and many of which don't need to be done. The near past is to be rejected.

At the same time, it is good to here a Democrat speak well of the founding fathers. The president did well to reach to the founders, and forgo anymore strained comparisons to Lincoln.

All in all it was not a bad speech, and he speaks well when he has a script, but, at least when read, it was not a stirring speech. It had some good moments, and it is good to here someone from the left embrace our history and patriotism, although those words might not mean what they think they mean. It had its downsides too. I was obviously a speech from the left, although that was to be expected. The greatest flaw was the inclusion of the ungracious, unsubtle snipes at President Bush. Perhaps he has moved for so long in circles where outright hatred of the right is the norm, he does not realize that oblique insults are still uncouth, given the occasion.

The address aside, I have said that the President deserves the respect due to his office. That does not necessarily apply to his jack-ass, moronic supporters. The left greeted the Bush presidency by throwing eggs at his motorcade after his inauguration, and ended it by booing and chanting na-na-na-na, hey, hey good-bye. In between there were comparisons to Hitler and chimps, ridicule and hatred. To steal a line, now I know what the left means by a classless society

Good Mourning

2009-01-20T07:54:00.000-08:00

It is with a heavy heart that I wear black today in honor of lost freedoms to come in months ahead.

Goodbye to freedom of speech, national security and the right to bear arms.

Hello to increased crime rate, higher taxes, record unemployment rates and this is just the beginning.

But it's okay. . . because this is the 'change' that America needs!

Inauguration

2009-01-20T07:34:00.000-08:00

As I write these words, we are in the last hours of the Bush presidency. In a little more than two hours Barack Obama will be inaugurated as the country's first black president. I've thought quite a bit in the last few days about what this means to me and to the country. Here are a few of my thoughts.

First, as should be obvious, I am not a political supporter of Mr. Obama. Out of all the major candidates in both parties, he was, with the possible exception of John Edwards, the person I least wanted to win. But he did, so I must come to terms with it.
He, however, will hold the office of President of the United States. I will not indulge in the mindless hatred that the left engaged in for the last eight years. Barack Obama will be my president. If some prominent conservative goes to London and expresses shame that Mr. Obama is president, I will condemn him or her as much as I did the Dixie Chicks. Even though I disagree profoundly with the platform on which he ran, I can nonetheless support him as president because of the unique nature the office. Unlike many other democracies, the President of the United States combine in one person the dual offices of Head of State and Head of Government. As Head of State, Mr. Obama will embody the United Stated to the world. He is the a personal manifestation of American democracy, and as such he deserves respect. And as a loyal citizen of this nation, he will have my respect.

As Head of Government, however, his words and actions, deserve only the respect they earn. If he advocates something that I see as damaging or dangerous to the country, then I, as loyal citizen, have the right and even the responsibility to criticize and oppose him.

All of that could be said about any politician, however. It would be wrong-headed of me to pretend that Mr. Obama's election was only about differing policies. His election demonstrates in a fundamental way the distance that race relations in this country have come in the last sixty years. This a great and glorious thing. It, however, says something that the first black man with minimal qualifications (Jackson and Sharpton don't count) to run for president won. I think that race relations have been much better for much longer than has been commonly presented. I would have preferred to have this be proven by a conservative black, but the times are what they are.

So when after every thing is said, where do I come down on the Obama presidency. As a pollster might ask, do I hope he succeeds? It depends on what one means by succeeds. Do I hope that he will offer that leadership that protects America from its enemies, and that the economy will revive and become again a vibrant powerhouse. Of course I do. Do I hope that he will succeed in enacting his policies and reshaping the American economy on more liberal lines. Well, no I don't. Because I think that he will succeed in the latter, I fear that he will fail in the former.

Obama's speech

2009-01-08T20:44:00.000-08:00

I caught the first two thirds of the president-elects speech to day. A few things popped out to me. Early in the speech he said "If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years.", later in the speech he said "It will take time — perhaps many years — but we can rebuild that lost trust and confidence. We can restore opportunity and prosperity."

This strikes me as going to the doctor and being told, "You have a cold. If nothing is done, it could last a week. Spend $1000.00 dollars on this medication and you will get well. It mayt take some time, perhaps a week."

I also like the scare tactict "The unemployment rate could reach double digits. Our economy could fall $1 trillion short of its full capacity, which translates into more than $12,000 in lost income for a family of four." Well, yeah it might average out to 12K per family, but the way it will actually happen is that the 80-90+% of the workers that don't loose their jobs will have no lost income, while those that do will loose much more income. The average is meaningless, but he makes it sound like everyone listening is going to loose thousands of dollars.

Later we get "It (digitizing medical records)will save lives by reducing the deadly but preventable medical errors that pervade our health care system." I'm deeply skeptical about the benefits of digitizing medical records. I've seen nurses struggle for too long trying to extract information from poorly designed systems to give the idea much credit. I also have very real doubts about the ability of digital records to prevent medical errors. For example, I fail to see how having a digital record will prevent a nurse from picking up a sound alike or look alike medication bottle, which is one of the common caused of medical errors. But what do I know, I just hand things to doctors. I wont't even get into the word "pervades".

About this point in the speech, I felt the strong call of classic rock on another station.

And now the fun starts.

2008-12-22T20:09:00.000-08:00

Please, remember it NSADP, not the 4 letter N word. Slows down the ones that don't know history. Which is a good chunk of the left.

While still think the nation will survive the next [4|8] years, being rabid to the left, like they were to the right from [1994|2000] to [2006|2008] is going to be one of my hobbies.

Every one needs a hobby.

Playing wack-a-mole with culturally elitist, of either side, is going to be one as well. You have been warned.

Illinois Politics

2008-12-09T15:22:00.000-08:00

I am sure everyone is aware that Rod R. Blagojevich, soon-to-be-ex-Governor of Illinois was arrested on federal corruption charges today. It seems, that among other things, he was caught trying to auction of Obama's Senate seat, threatening the Tribune Company's sale of Wrigley Field until they fired the Chicago Tribune editorial staff critical of him, and threatening to withhold state approval of children's hospital unless contributions were made to his campaign.

I find this refreshing, because this is a political scandal that I was able to explain to my 11 year old daughter. I hide to fill in a few background facts, like a Governor's power to fill a vacant Senate seat. Otherwise this is a quite simple scandal to explain, even an 11 year old can understand straightforward bribery. This scandal, so far, is also free from involvement with the human reproductive system, something new in political scandals.

Remembering Arthur Carlson

2008-11-26T10:39:00.000-08:00

“As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.”

Wishing everyone the Happiest of Thanksgivings

So Why…Cheap Shot

2008-11-18T09:05:00.000-08:00

I will continue my observations about the Sports Radio morning show (I really do like these guys)…While discussing some of the more egregious examples of anti-Obama talk, including KKK and Skinhead references, one of the talking trio reported on a Teacher relating her meeting with an 8-year-old girl who claimed “Obama is a terrorist”, despite the teachers attempts to dissuade, the 8-year-old was adamant. Our Obama supporter then commented “Well, there you have the next Sarah Palin.”

My question: How is your cheap shot at Palin any different than the cheap shots at Obama you were reporting on with such scorn?

So Why…Cont.

2008-11-18T09:03:00.000-08:00

Same sports radio- talking heads as before, this time discussing the athletic ability of the Presidents. The discussion turned to President Elect Obama’s college days and the Obama supporter said “we really don’t know much about what the man did before he ran for office…”

I will repeat my query: So why did you vote for him?

Issues. We've got issues.

2008-11-17T10:08:00.001-08:00

My personal life aside, I'd like to start a betting pool on the first "Negative" MSM* report about the Obama administration.

You youngsters may not remember it but there were "Negative" reporting during the Carter years. Even some during the Clinton years.

My money is on or about March 15th, 2009.

Minor side note. I wonder how long it's going to be before the Google tool bar or the Firefox spell checker knows that Obama isn't a miss spelling? I've added it to my personal dictionary on this machine (aka Smallbox), but I'm going to leave it off the laptops, just to see.

*Rush et. al. and Fox News do not count MSM for this bet.

So Why...

2008-11-07T07:55:00.001-08:00

This morning’s sports radio talk touched on the economy and the stock market losses of the last two days. One talking-head mentioned the theory that the sell was a result of fear of Obama and his economic and tax policies. Another talking-head, an admitted Obama supporter, said that was ridiculous. “No one knows what his policies are.”

Ok, let’s assume that’s correct: So why did you vote for him?

Not laying off the rants

2008-11-05T17:43:00.000-08:00

But today I've had other issues See here, and thank God here.

Ranting will return soonish.

Prediction

2008-11-05T11:49:00.000-08:00

For what's it worth, I called four states wrong: Colorado 9, Indiana 11, Ohio 20, and Virginia 13, all of which I called for McCain, although CO and OH I expressed very low confidence in my call. I guess my assumptions about the polls skewing democratic were wrong. Oh well.

More on France

2008-11-05T07:32:00.000-08:00

Well yes, France has comparable military and economy per capita. Let's look at some other statistics. According to Freedom House, the United States ranks as the 7th most free and France as the 26th most free for civil and political freedom. The only major Western countries that are listed as less free are Germany and Spain, and Spain at least is still recovering from a nasty dictatorship. I will grant that this data is from 2000-2001, and much has changed since then. When you turn to economic freedom, according to The Heritage Foundation, the divide gets even wider, with the US coming in at #6 while France comes in next to last in the West at #42. (Only Greece does worse at #56).

In short, France is the least free country of what used to be called the West. If the American Exceptionalism is about anything, it is about freedom, both political and economic.

The more important aspect of Dale's claim about France is historical, and of a longer historical period than Mike seems to be taking into account. From the 14th through the 18th century, France was the most important country politically, culturally, and militarily in what France regarded as the civilized world. (It does not matter that France's view of its power was false. The fact that Imperial China was bigger, and by most standards more civilized had no impact on France. They believed that it was so, and that is what matters in this argument.) Since the 18th century France had been surpassed by Great Britain, Germany, Russia, and the United States. And that's just listing the powers that France saw as in its world in its heyday. This, I believe, still grates on the French soul. They are not content with being one of the G7 or a permanent member of the security council. They were number one damn it. They matter. Really. Nothing sums up the French position like the statement "Today's lingua franca is English."

A moment of refection, a rant, and some stuff about France

2008-11-05T00:01:00.000-08:00

When "The Scrub" asked me start posting here, he was fairly up front that he wanted my slightly different point of view. It's quite obvious I don't have the same point of view as the other 3 writers here. With the possible exception of the threat posed by Islamic freaks of nature, I suspect on any given important issue I differ with at least one, if not all 3 of the other writers. If all you want is an echo chamber, well, fine, I have my own ranting spots, I can leave y'all alone. Not going to do that for a while, I've got a couple of posts about the three types of conservatives and why they normally don't get along, plus my fun post where I explain why that the Military isn't really conservative in the sense that normal American civilians think of the the term.

For today's rant, I'm go to go off on Dale. Dale should be used to this, he's see me in ranting mode, aimed at him a lot. In retrospect I should have opened fire on him or The scrub first, because they are used to it.

Dale said that with out the US economy we were France. This, as it happens, is also not supported by the facts. We are France, just with 4.8 times as many people and a lot more baths. Facts to back this up follow:

The real GDP growth of France in 2007, according to the CIA fact book was 2.1%
The US, according to the same source, was 2.0%

The US public debt was 60.8% of the GDP, France was 63%.

US Industrial growth rate was -1.7%, France +1.8% (both 2007 data)
Population below the poverty line, US 12%, France 6.2% (both 2004 data)

Value of stock market [note: this is pre current crash data] France 1.7 Trillion dollars US 17 Trillion. Adusting for size this make it 8.3 vs 17. Of course, their market didn't nose dive quite as hard as ours did. I have a gut feeling, but no proof that the are, adjusted for size, about the same now.

France's GNP is $2.075 trillion (2007 est.) US is $13.78 trillion (2007 est.). Apply the population modifier and that makes France 10.126 trillion.

Of course, "France" as we know it, isn't long for this world. Doing the same set of comparisons against the EU vs the US will show that US, as of right now, after more or less constant Republican rule for either 8 or 14 years doesn't make the US look all that good.

The US Military get 4.06 if the GPD. France gets 2.6. The fact that they have only one navy vs effectively two for the US (side effect of only having one coast to guard vs 2) and that their long range bombers don't have to fly half way around the word (Moscow being with in walking distance of France (see 1812 for more details)) does figure into this, plus they still have the draft, which lowers costs some more.

As far a grunt boots on the ground, they have 17 combat brigades, which are slightly over size compared to the US's current CBT TO&E. If I have to I'll figure this in combat companies, but that's just the miltary geek in me talking.

The US has 54, plus 10 USMC regiments.

Adjusting for population size, That means France's army is bigger than the US. (84 brigades vs 64) That 54 Army BCT,, by the way, includes the National Guard. The 17 French does not include their reserve forces.

Again, the US is France, just with worse beer, but more baths. Lots more baths. Yeah, France didn't follow us into Iraq the second time. We didn't follow them into Chad, the Ivory Coast or any of the other African hell hole wars of the last two decades that they got them self into.

Don't get me wrong, the fact that we out mass the French by a factor of 4.88 does mean that in a pissing contest, push come to shove, we win. On the other hand, they have enough SSBN that if it really came down to it, it would be ugly. In theory, the French navy is a bigger threat to the USN than any other navy other than the PRC. Possible toss up with the RN.

Would I want to live in France? Hell no. I've been there, several times. There is a reason why I keep say "with more baths". Are they a country to be respected? Hell yes. France, of late, is starting to show some spine vs the Islamic internal invasion. While I don't currently have a "buy French" icon on my primary blog, I could see it.

The Danes, of course, get it. If I have to move some place, Denmark it my first option. Scotland is second, followed by Australia. England is #4. France or German is #5, and that depends a lot on what they do in the next year or so. If I must make a stand against The Fall of Night and I can't do it here, those are my prime choices as to where to do it.

Well, damn

2008-11-04T20:11:00.000-08:00

I still say it's not the end of the world as we know it.

Also need to find those bumper stickers I saw in 2005, to whit - "51% isn't a mandate".

Unfortunately, to many, on both sides, it is.

We are Blogging.

2008-11-04T15:16:00.000-08:00

I just don't agree with you or her.

But three things come to mind:
List removed.

1) You will note that neither Russia/USSR or China were in my list of 'Liberty restored' countries, because, IMAO, they never had it to be restored. Great idea, putting up straw men that are not in my list, then knocking them down.

2) Hyperinflation in the Wiemar Republic. Might want to check the time line on that really carefully, and let's add that Hitler wasn't elected. Even at it's best in open elections the Nazi only got about 30% of the vote. I'll also add that neither welfare state socialism or higher base tax rates were the cause of it. France wanting her ton of flesh might have had something to do with it.

3) None of the counties I listed were freed mainly due to the actions of US armed forces. I was very careful to not to include those. All of them were freed due to the actions of their own people. One of them (Greece), in fact, had a fairly nasty dictatorship come to power AFTER the US spent blood and treasure post WWII to keep it in the 1st world.

A contributing reason to the fall of Rome was too many mouths and not enough workers

So, your saying that the Roman Empire in 410 AD was any thing like what we would call a democracy and that it voted it's self into debt? A much larger factor is that serving in the Roman Military stopped being though of as civic duty, and the legions became more and more manned by the people they were supposed to be guarding against. I'm not raising the chicken hawk straw man, but which one of us has served?

Finally, since there is no historical evidence of the existence of a nuclear Islamic Jihad, should we not concern ourselves with the possibility it might occur?

No, that is not what I said, and I will point out that Pakistan (one of the two countries that recognized that Taliban, and where OBL is most likely hiding today), has the bomb, and has saber rattled with India post having the bomb, with a terrorist attack on the Indian parliament. If you don't think that makes it a historical fact, you need to rethink your thoughts on it. For the record, Obama has said he would attack a target in Pakistan, which is more than GW Bush would do. GW Bush seriously backed down on the "for us or against us" rhetoric post 9/11 with regards to Pakistan.

You see, without the strength of the American economy, we are France: Impotent and raging about where our world status went, unable to care for our own and at the mercy of terrorist threats.

A member of the G7, on the Security council of the UN, a nuclear power with it's own deference force, one the roughly 6 countries in the world that can project world wide power on it's own, with a right of center government? This isn't the US how?

Compare and contrast the French heat wave with Katrina, the French 'Islamic youth' revolt/ burning cars 2 years ago with any of the LA or Detroit riots. I'm not even going to touch the murder rate in the national capitals.

The US survived 1963-1980. We will survive, regardless of who wins today, 2008-2012.

Edited because blogger ate parts of my post and removed a tick mark

So Don’t Be Harsh –

2008-11-04T14:42:00.000-08:00

Are we blogging or preparing a doctoral dissertation complete with footnotes? I don’t see how Marie’s statements were “about history.” When I read the blog they appeared to be more of the political philosophy bent than direct statement intended to be supported by historical fact.

But let’s go from a historical perspective;

Now for the line “her first (statement) is provably false”, you are absolutely correct. It is provably false. But three things come to mind:

First, I really wouldn’t have wanted to be a shop keeper in Moscow in 1916 and had a friend say “communism is a passing fad and not supported historically.” Yes, geologically speaking, the USSR was over in the blink of an eye, yet if you were 18 when the revolution began you were 90 when a form of liberty was restored (only to be threatened soon thereafter). At 90, with 72 years of your life spent without Liberty, are you really going to take the wide historical perspective angle?
Second: tell the followers of Chiang Kai-Shek who didn’t make it to the island that “liberty would soon be restored” Those who by some miracle managed to survive are still waiting for liberty to be restored. Further, how many were murdered after the Tiananmen Square protest in 1989 trying to restore Liberty?
Finally, how many were millions killed resorting Liberty to Europe after the quickly passing fad of Nazism just to have an equally (for all but the Jews) devastating Iron Curtain fall on the Eastern half? How many millions were murdered behind that curtain?

While in some cases you are correct, Liberty was restored, was it worth the cost? Do the more than 100 million who lost their liberty and their lives really deserve to be reduced to a game of gotcha? Marie is correct, for those, Liberty lost was never restored.

As for the eventual collapse of democracy due to a heavy fiscal load I have three separate thoughts:

First, as the first great democracy in the modern world, what historical example would you prefer? A contributing reason to the fall of Rome was too many mouths and not enough workers. The hyper inflation caused by the Weimar Republic attempting to take care of everyone helped lead to Nazism and Hitler. I think we can call Hitler a dictator
Second: would you please inform me of five government programs designed to “help the needy” that were ever stopped? I mean done away with completely and not renamed and given even more money from the treasury? While I know you ‘don’t know and really don’t care” it is, and always will be, “about the economy stupid.” You see, without the strength of the American economy, we are France: Impotent and raging about where our world status went, unable to care for our own and at the mercy of terrorist threats.
Finally, since there is no historical evidence of the existence of a nuclear Islamic Jihad, should we not concern ourselves with the possibility it might occur?

A failing economy caused by over regulation, too much outflow for social programs, a shrinking defense budget to compensate for the social outflow, and a nuclear Islamic Jihad may just lead to Sharia Law in the West.

I Voted

2008-11-04T09:15:00.000-08:00

So I just got back from voting. Not a terribly long line, kinda odd though. They divide the voters into two lines, last names A-L on one side and M-Z on the other. My side had a line, the other didn't. When I left there was still a line on my side but not the other. More SUVs in the parking lot than hybrids. I was voter 714. Poll worker said the precinct has 3111 registered voters. Polls had been open about 4 hours.

Gratuitous LotR reference

2008-11-04T05:45:00.000-08:00

Go, Vote.

Don't like to be harsh

2008-11-03T21:02:00.000-08:00

To Marie, but I don't deal well with unsupportable statements about history and she made a pair of big ones in her last post.

Neither
But a constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever.

or

Democracy exists until voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidate who promises the most benefits, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to fiscal policy, which is followed by dictatorship.
are supportable by the facts of history.

The first is provably false, and there is no example of the 2nd in history.

Prediction

2008-11-03T19:52:00.000-08:00

But a constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever. -John Adams

I predict McCain will pull out a victory come election day.

Should Obama prevail; I fear we are on an irreversible downward spiral which will lead to the fall of democracy. Democracy exists until voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidate who promises the most benefits, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to fiscal policy, which is followed by dictatorship.

I also predict that the same people who voted for Obama – will deny ever doing so in 2 years once we hit double digit numbers of unemployment, higher taxes and our 401K’s having been absorbed by the Government for ‘wealth redistribution” and our right to bear arms has been rewritten out of the Constitution.

This is Obama’s definition of change.

Irony

2008-11-03T16:55:00.000-08:00

I will always find it ironic that the first time I watched Billy Wilder’s “Ace In the Hole” was the day before the Presidential election involving Barak Obama.

Early Voting

2008-11-03T16:17:00.001-08:00

Much has been made of the huge numbers turning out to vote early, and of the relative party composition of the early voters, as if that would give some indication as to the final outcome. My state offers early voting. The courthouse where I would have needed to go to vote is about 4 blocks farther from my house than the my regular polling place. Tomorrow, because of other obligations, voting will be somewhat inconvenient. When I mentioned early voting to wife, she indignantly rejected the idea because she strongly feels that voting should be done on election day. I agree with her. I wonder, is that attitude more common for conservatives or liberals?

Condolences

2008-11-03T16:11:00.000-08:00

Barak Obama's grandmother died late Sunday night. Although I hope with my all my heart that Obama looses tomorrow, this is fairly poignant. If , as well may happen, he wins tomorrow, she will have died without seeing his greatest triumph. As it is, she died in the firm belief that the grandson she raised would become president. Rest in Peace.

That said, I do wish she had lived another 24 hours.

Don't know, really don't care

2008-11-03T13:52:00.000-08:00

Actually, I do care, but really, when you get down to it, I don't. While I think the most important issue of my generation and the next (i.e. The Other Writers kids) is the Islamic Jihad against the West. I don't think we will loose it due to who the president is for 4-8 years. We won the Long War (1918-1989) despite some fairly bad choices in the White House. Which ones were bad choices and why I leave as an exercise for the reader. I'm sure any one that reads this blog can find a bad one in that time frame.

I have faith in the people of the West, and I don't think we are going to go quietly into that good night. If not, well, I'm perfectly willing to be a 21st century "Flandry Of Terra". I may not stop the Fall of Night, but it will not happen while I still live.

American civilization will survive a higher tax rate on capital gains. It will survive a higher base income tax rate. Hell, it will even survive single payer medical system. We might not like it as much, but none of these would kill what we call America. Sharia law, on the other, would. Noting remotely resembling America would survive under that.

Long, long ago, I posted this. It's still the most important thing. Never Surrender. Never give in.

It's not "it's the economy stupid". It never will be again. Please don't fall into that pit, for that way lies madness.

Prediction Time

2008-11-03T11:06:00.001-08:00

As much as it pains me: Obama in a landslide with over 330

Dewey beats Truman

2008-11-03T10:32:00.000-08:00

For the last two election cycles, I have predicted a state by state breakdown of the electoral college. Although I predicted both Bush wins, my state by state predictions were not that great. So here I go again.

Obama wins. 296 to 242 electoral college votes.

My "methodology" is this. I looked at state by state polls, using Rasmussen. I assume that there is reporting error in favor of Obama that amounts a few percent points. I also assume that the undecided are going to break for McCain. There is evidence for both of these assumptions. All polls seem to skew democratic, there is the Bradley effect and I think the new voters won't show in the greater numbers expected. There is some of evidence that most of the "undecideds" seem to be white males a group which is breaking for McCain. Taking all of that into account, plus looking into the general trend of the polls over the last month, I've called each state. Obama 296 McCain 242.

Heres the breakdown with electoral college votes for each state. Note that more asterisks a state has the less confident I am in my pick. Note also that if the only state I am wrong is Florida, the election goes the other way.

Obama 296

California 55, Connecticut 7, Delaware 3, DC 3, Florida 27***, Hawaii 4, Illinois 21, Iowa 7*, Maine 4, Maryland 10, Massachusetts12, Michigan 17*, Minnesota 10, Nevada 5*, New Hampshire 4**, New Jersey 15*, New York 31, New Mexico 5, Oregon 7, Pennsylvania 21*, Rhode Island 4, Vermont 3, Washington 11, Wisconsin 10*

McCain 242

Alaska 3, Alabama 9, Arkansas 6, Arizona 10*, Colorado 9 ***, Georgia 15, Idaho 4, Indiana 11*, Kansas 6, Kentucky 8, Louisiana 9, Missouri 11**, Mississippi 6, Montana 3*, Nebraska 5, North Carolina 15*, North Dakota 3, Ohio 20***, Oklahoma 7, South Carolina 8, South Dakota 3, Tennessee 11, Texas 34, Utah 5, Virginia 13**, Wyoming 3, West Virginia 5

Anybody else want to make a prediction?